In the news
On 22 October, the Philippines’ Department of Foreign Affairs accused Chinese Coast Guard vessels of intentionally colliding with their ships during a resupply mission in the South China Sea. The Chinese Coast Guard blamed the Philippines for violating international maritime law and threatening the navigation safety of Chinese ships. 

On 23 October, Deputy Chief of Mission of the Chinese embassy in Manila, Zhou Zhiyong, expressed China’s strong dissatisfaction over Philippine vessels’ presence in Ren’ai Jia also known as Second Thomas Shoal. He insisted that the region is part of China’s territory. 

The same day, the US Department of State stated: “The United States stands with our Philippine allies in the face of the People’s Republic of China coast guard and maritime militia’s dangerous and unlawful actions obstructing an October 22 Philippine resupply mission to Second Thomas Shoal.” Moreover, US national security adviser Jake Sullivan called China’s maritime actions “dangerous and unlawful.” 

Issues at large
First, the flare-up in long-standing territorial dispute. The dispute over the Spratly Islands has been ongoing since the Second World War. Currently, Vietnam, China, Taiwan, Malaysia, Brunei and the Philippines have conflicting claims to the Spratly Island based on historical sovereignty, geography and economic interests. China claims the entire sea, rejecting international rulings. In 2016, the UN-backed Permanent Court of Arbitration ruled that Chinese claims are groundless, favouring the Philippines' claims. The tensions surged recently with China’s increased aggression in the region. In November 2021, Chinese vessels hindered Philippine boats supplying the grounded BRP Sierra Madre, a warship placed since 1999 that serves as an outpost for the Philippines Navy in the Second Thomas Shoal. Additionally, on 8 August 2023, the Chinese Coast Guard was accused of attempting to obstruct a supply mission to the outpost of the BRP Sierra Madre using water cannons. 

Second, claims and counterclaims by China and the Philippines. The recent incident involves the dispute over claims between China and the Philippines. China asserts ownership of the Second Thomas Shoal and most of the South China Sea via its nine-dash line, a map used by China to assert territorial claims in the South China Sea. BRP Sierra Madre has allegedly become a symbol of the Philippines’ assertion of sovereignty. China accuses the Philippine government of breaking its commitment to remove the BRP Sierra Madre. While UNCLOS dictates that uninhabited islands cannot establish Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ), China’s straight baseline claims challenge this. Moreover, China’s reliance on “historic rights” and its Law on the Exclusive Economic Zones and Continental Shelf Act of 1998 contradicts UNCLOS’ Article 47 (1). The Philippines, in line with UNCLOS, asserts its EEZ over the Shoal. 

Third, the ineffectiveness of the resolutions. Efforts to resolve disputes in the region face challenges due to issues with implementing UNCLOS and negotiating a binding Code of Conduct (COC). UNCLOS falls short in addressing territorial sovereignty and enforcement. The lack of a central authority hinders dispute resolution. Progress on replacing the non-binding Declaration on the Conduct of Parties (DOC) with the COC is delayed due to China’s reluctance. 

Fourth, the role of international actors. The US supports its allies in the region including the Philippines and challenges China’s maritime claims through patrols and operations. Japan asserts sovereignty over the East China Sea’s Senkaku islands which is contested by China and Taiwan. Australia, with no territorial claims, opposes China’s South China Sea assertions, provides security assistance to claimants including the Philippines and advocates for peaceful conflict resolution. These international involvements influence regional stability and the broader geopolitical landscape. It makes the South China Sea a nexus of global strategic interests and contestation.

In perspective
First, continuing the locus of contention. China’s persistent use of gray zone tactics in the South China Sea raises questions about their effectiveness and the region’s future. These tactics, short of direct military conflict, are linked to China’s quest to rectify what it sees as a “century of humiliation.” While they symbolise China’s political power and enhance its intelligence capabilities, their impact remains uncertain. The dispute will likely continue as long as China sees it as a way to assert national pride.

Second, overarching threats to the region. These incidents pose economic threats and risk regional conflict. China’s militarization, island-building and US Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOP) can escalate the danger of a larger conflict. Historical narratives and resource desires drive this dispute stemming from broader geopolitical tensions in the Asia-Pacific. This affects volatile regional stability and the strategic interests of regional actors.